Researchers used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample to analyze elective surgical caseloads. They then used a time series to forecast March 2020 to May 2020 revenues and demand for these cases, and conducted a sensitivity analysis to calculate the time needed to clear delayed elective surgical cases.
Researchers believe delays around elective surgeries cost $22.3 billion in national revenue. They predict a median recovery time of 12 to 22 months for the elective surgery market.
Researchers concluded: “Strategies to mitigate the predicted revenue loss of $22.3 billion due to major elective surgery cessation will vary with hospital-specific supply-demand equilibrium. If patient demand is slow to return, hospitals should focus on marketing of services; if hospital capacity is constrained, efficient capacity expansion may be beneficial. Finally, rural and urban non-teaching hospitals may face increased financial risk which may exacerbate care disparities.”
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