By 2036, the U.S. is projected to have a near balance of colorectal surgeons nationwide, with a supply of 3,360 physicians compared to demand for 3,380, a shortfall of just 20 surgeons, or 99% adequacy overall, according to projections from the Department of Health and Human Services’ Health Resource
But that national equilibrium masks sharp regional imbalances. Several large states, including California, Texas, Florida and Georgia, are projected to face notable shortages, while parts of the Mountain West and South are expected to meet just 33% to 50% of projected demand.
At the same time, a number of Northeastern and Midwestern states, including New York, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Ohio, are forecast to have sizable surpluses.
The projections are based on the Health Workforce Simulation Model, an integrated microsimulation model that estimates the current and future supply of and demand for healthcare workers by occupation, geographic area and year. The model incorporates factors such as population growth and aging, geographic shifts in where patients live, provider entry and retirement patterns, and evolving access to care.
Here’s a breakdown of projected colorectal surgeon supply and demand by state by 2036:
| State | Supply | Demand | Surplus/shortage | Percent adequacy |
| Total | 3,360 | 3,380 | -20 | 99% |
| Alabama | 50 | 50 | N/A | 100% |
| Alaska | 10 | 10 | N/A | 100% |
| Arizona | 60 | 80 | -20 | 75% |
| Arkansas | 20 | 30 | -10 | 67% |
| California | 300 | 400 | -100 | 75% |
| Colorado | 30 | 60 | -30 | 50% |
| Connecticut | 50 | 30 | 20 | 167% |
| Delaware | 10 | 10 | N/A | 100% |
| District of Columbia | 20 | 10 | 10 | 200% |
| Florida | 250 | 280 | -30 | 89% |
| Georgia | 90 | 120 | -30 | 75% |
| Hawaii | 10 | 10 | N/A | 100% |
| Idaho | 10 | 20 | -10 | 50% |
| Illinois | 120 | 120 | N/A | 100% |
| Indiana | 60 | 60 | N/A | 100% |
| Iowa | 20 | 30 | -10 | 67% |
| Kansas | 10 | 30 | -20 | 33% |
| Kentucky | 50 | 50 | N/A | 100% |
| Louisiana | 70 | 50 | 20 | 140% |
| Maine | 20 | 20 | N/A | 100% |
| Maryland | 50 | 60 | -10 | 83% |
| Massachusetts | 120 | 70 | 50 | 171% |
| Michigan | 130 | 100 | 30 | 130% |
| Minnesota | 90 | 50 | 40 | 180% |
| Mississippi | 10 | 20 | -10 | 50% |
| Missouri | 80 | 60 | 20 | 133% |
| Montana | 10 | 10 | N/A | 100% |
| Nebraska | 30 | 20 | 10 | 150% |
| Nevada | 30 | 30 | N/A | 100% |
| New Hampshire | 10 | 20 | -10 | 50% |
| New Jersey | 100 | 100 | N/A | 100% |
| New Mexico | 20 | 30 | -10 | 67% |
| New York | 310 | 190 | 120 | 163% |
| North Carolina | 90 | 110 | -20 | 82% |
| North Dakota | 10 | 10 | N/A | 100% |
| Ohio | 150 | 110 | 40 | 136% |
| Oklahoma | 20 | 40 | -20 | 50% |
| Oregon | 50 | 50 | N/A | 100% |
| Pennsylvania | 160 | 130 | 30 | 123% |
| Rhode Island | 10 | 10 | N/A | 100% |
| South Carolina | 40 | 60 | -20 | 67% |
| South Dakota | 10 | 10 | N/A | 100% |
| Tennessee | 50 | 70 | -20 | 71% |
| Texas | 270 | 300 | -30 | 90% |
| Utah | 30 | 30 | N/A | 100% |
| Vermont | 10 | 10 | N/A | 100% |
| Virginia | 90 | 90 | N/A | 100% |
| Washington | 70 | 80 | -10 | 88% |
| West Virginia | 10 | 20 | -10 | 50% |
| Wisconsin | 60 | 60 | N/A | 100% |
| Wyoming | 10 | 10 | N/A | 100% |
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