California, New York and Texas are expected to have the largest deficits, with each state potentially having a shortage of more than 2,000 physicians by 2028.
The report used historical data up to 2023, applying a linear autoregressive model based on historical supply data for each occupation and geography to project surpluses and shortages.
Here are the states that are projected to have a shortage of physicians by 2028:
Note: This list includes the District of Columbia. States are listed in order of largest projected shortage.
Texas: 2,830
New York: 2,706
California: 2,580
Georgia: 850
Missouri: 634
Utah: 525
North Carolina: 393
Oregon: 387
Alabama: 380
Kentucky: 358
South Carolina: 243
Oklahoma: 195
West Virginia: 160
Michigan: 111
Maine: 66
Vermont: 58
District of Columbia: 54
South Dakota: 19
New Mexico: 14
Hawaii: 9
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