The GI physician shortage by state, by 2036

By 2036, the U.S. is projected to have a shortfall of around 630 GI physicians, according to projections from the Department of Health and Human Services’ Health Resources and Services Administration.

The shortage, however, is not evenly distributed. While several large and mid-Atlantic states — including New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania — are projected to have sizable surpluses, much of the South and Mountain West is expected to see significant deficits. Nevada, Wyoming, Alaska and Montana are projected to meet just 33% to 50% of demand, and states such as Oklahoma, South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi are forecast to operate at less than 70% adequacy.

The projections are based on the Health Workforce Simulation Model, an integrated microsimulation model that estimates the current and future supply of and demand for healthcare workers by occupation, geographic area and year. The model incorporates factors such as population growth and aging, geographic shifts in where patients live, provider entry and retirement patterns, and evolving access to care. Read more about the methodology here.

Here’s a breakdown of projected anesthesiology physician supply and demand by state by 2036: