States with the highest projected physician shortages vs. job resignation rates

As staffing issues remain top of mind for healthcare leaders, physician shortages and job resignations can further exacerbate the problem.

Becker's compiled this data using a study from the Human Resources for Health and a survey from WalletHub.

The Human Resources for Health study, published Feb. 6, analyzed current and future physician job surplus and shortage trends throughout the U.S. from 2017 to 2030. Researchers used projected changes in age and population size and created supply and demand models to predict physician shortages in 50 states.

The WalletHub survey, published March 17, examined the rate at which people quit their jobs in both the latest month and the last 12 months from the time of the survey. It ranked the states and Washington, D.C., by giving the resignation rate of the last 12 months full weight (33.33 points) and the resignation rate of the latest month double weight (66.67 points).

Ten states predicted to have the greatest shortages of physicians by 2030 from highest to lowest compared with state resignation rates:

California

Predicted shortage of physicians: 32,669

Resignation rate (Latest month): 2.50 percent

Resignation rate (Last 12 months): 2.42 percent

Florida

Predicted shortage of physicians: 21,978

Resignation rate (Latest month): 2.70 percent

Resignation rate (Last 12 months): 3.01 percent

Texas

Predicted shortage of physicians: 20,420

Resignation rate (Latest month): 3.10 percent

Resignation rate (Last 12 months): 2.98 percent

Arizona

Predicted shortage of physicians: 8,280

Resignation rate (Latest month): 3.50 percent

Resignation rate (Last 12 months): 3.21 percent

Georgia

Predicted shortage of physicians: 8,012

Resignation rate (Latest month): 3.60 percent

Resignation rate (Last 12 months): 3.66 percent

North Carolina

Predicted shortage of physicians: 7,725

Resignation rate (Latest month): 2.90 percent

Resignation rate (Last 12 months): 3.24 percent

Illinois

Predicted shortage of physicians: 6,203

Resignation rate (Latest month): 2.40 percent

Resignation rate (Last 12 months): 2.79 percent

Washington

Predicted shortage of physicians: 6,037

Resignation rate (Latest month): 2.50 percent

Resignation rate (Last 12 months): 2.40 percent

Tennessee

Predicted shortage of physicians: 5,989

Resignation rate (Latest month): 3.50 percent

Resignation rate (Last 12 months): 3.13 percent

Louisiana

Predicted shortage of physicians: 4,820

Resignation rate (Latest month): 3.10 percent

Resignation rate (Last 12 months): 3.25 percent

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