Study: Medicare will overpay Medicare Advantage by $200B through 2026: 4 key facts

UC San Diego researchers found current diagnostic coding trends for patient risk scores will cause Medicare to overpay Medicare Advantage plans through 2026 by an estimated $200 billion.

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Here’s what you should know.

1. The average risk score for Medicare Advantage beneficiaries continues to rise by approximately 1.5 percent per year. CMS uses these risk scores to determine its payments to Medicare Advantage plans.

2. Despite the increasing risk scores, there’s no evidence that beneficiaries have gotten any sicker. Researchers allege if this practice continues, Medicare will overpay the Medicare Advantage program by approximately $200 billion.

3. Richard Kronick, PhD, principal investigator, said, “Congress and CMS have the opportunity to establish a payment system that will protect taxpayers from the strategies used by MA plans to increase the payments they receive. The projected $200 billion in overpayments over the next 10 years is stunningly large in absolute dollar terms. To provide some perspective, federal support for community health centers is approximately $5 billion per year.”

4. Dr. Kronick said CMS could solve the problem by adjusting for coding intensity while assuming beneficiaries are no healthier or sicker than demographically similar Medicare beneficiaries.

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