Number of physicians will rise by 16 percent. Physician supply will rise from 817,000 active physicians under age 75 in 2005 to a projected 952,000 active physicians by 2020, an increase of 135,000 physicians.
Hours of physician services will rise by 13 percent. Total hours of physician services will increase at a lower rate than numbers of physicians because more physicians are women or older, and these groups typically work fewer hours.
Demand for physician services will rise by at least 22 percent. Growth in demand will be highest among physicians who predominantly serve the elderly, such as cardiologists, internists and most surgeons.
Demand for physician services may rise more rapidly. Demand could increase above baseline projections due to growing public expectations for healthcare and enhanced ability to pay for higher levels of care.
Several factors may narrow the supply-demand gap. These factors include:
- improvements in physician productivity, such as EHRs;
- scientific advances that can contribute to improved health, such as prescription drugs; and
- increased use of non-physician clinicians, such as nurse practitioners, physician assistants and certified registered nurse anesthetists.
See the HRSA report
.
