The anesthesia physician shortage by state, by 2036

By 2036, the U.S. is projected to have a supply of 50,490 anesthesia physicians but a demand for 60,760 — a shortfall of more than 10,000 physicians nationwide — according to projections from the Department of Health and Human Services’ Health Resources and Services Administration.

The impact will vary widely by state. More than half of states are projected to fall below 90% adequacy, and at least a dozen states are expected to meet less than 70% of projected demand. Southern and Mountain West states, including Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and Idaho,  face some of the steepest gaps, with projected adequacy rates below 60% and, in Idaho’s case, under 30%.

Massachusetts, New York and Vermont are expected to exceed projected demand, while California, Nebraska and Wisconsin are forecast to hover near equilibrium. The District of Columbia stands out with a projected supply three times higher than demand.

The projections are based on the Health Workforce Simulation Model, an integrated microsimulation model that estimates the current and future supply of and demand for healthcare workers by occupation, geographic area and year. The model incorporates factors such as population growth and aging, geographic shifts in where patients live, provider entry and retirement patterns, and evolving access to care. Read more about the methodology here.

Here’s a breakdown of projected anesthesiology physician supply and demand by state by 2036: