In “The Future of the Nursing Workforce in the United States: Data, Trends and Implications,”, Peter Buerhaus, PhD, authors say that demand for RNs is expected to continue to grow at 2 percent to 3 percent per year, as it has done for the past four decades, while the supply of RNs is expected to grow very little as large numbers of nurses begin to retire. The nurse deficit, which the authors say began in 1998, is expected to increase sharply beginning in 2015, growing to an estimated 285,000 full-time nurses in 2020, and reaching 500,000 by 2025, according to a summary of the study.
The study draws on census data to determine the supply and demand. According to Modern Healthcare’s Daily Dose, co-author Peter Buerhaus, RN, PhD, FAAN, noted in a talk at the annual meeting of the American Organization of Nurse Executives that many nurses are among the baby boomers who will begin retiring over that time, which serves only to compound the problem.
?It is a matter of supply and demand in a profession that is the front line of our health care system,? says Dr. Buerhaus in the summary. ?While there have been some notable and important improvements, our data shows that we have in no way solved this emerging long-term problem.?
The good news is that, in the short term, the economic slowdown is prompting many nurses to return to the field or to move from part-time to full-time, reports the Wall Street Journal in its May 7 edition. It reports:
“We are seeing a temporary lessening of the nursing shortage,” says Jane Llewellyn, vice president of clinical nursing affairs at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago. But, she says, “as soon as the economy turns up we’ll see them staying home again.”
It’s a familiar pattern during economic slowdowns. For years, the high demand for nurses has allowed them to design work schedules that suit their financial and family needs. Many start off working full time on difficult shifts and then reduce their hours when they have a family … or as they approach retirement. But when the economy goes sour, many nurses go back to work full-time.
The U.S. economy lost 20,000 jobs last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics; however, healthcare employment rose by 37,000 in April, and by 365,000 over the past 12 months, the WSJ says.
