The projected U.S. physician shortage by 2036 is between 13,500 and 86,000, according to a paper published May 7 in the Permanente Journal.
The paper surveyed 971 clinically inactive physicians drawn from American Medical Association Physician Professional Data between May and June 2024, with questions assessing demographics, education, clinical training, and reasons for leaving clinical practice.
Here are nine more things to know:
1. Physician attrition rate nearly doubled from 1.7% in 2010 to 3.1% in 2018.
2. The mean age of clinically inactive physicians is now 48.1, compared to 57.1 in a similar 2008 cohort.
3. A 2-year drop in average retirement age wipes out roughly 40,000 physicians from projected 2036 supply.
4. Eleven percent of respondents never practiced at all after completing residency. According to the paper, this is a previously unstudied group representing immediate loss of fully-trained physicians.
5. Surveyed physicians’ top reason for leaving is the “hassle factor,” which includes administrative burden, at 44.7%, and stress, at 44.5%. This is followed by unrealistic patient demands with 41.1% and lack of professional satisfaction at 38.4%.
6. Women make up 63.9% of the inactive physician sample, despite being roughly half the eligible physician population.
7. Women leave the field 3 years earlier than men. The median career length of women is 9 years, compared to 12 years for men.
8. Women are five times more likely to cite childcare as a reason for leaving — 21.3% vs. 4.2% for men. Caring for other family members showed a similar disparity, with 7.9% of women citing compared to 0.6% of men.
9. Women now make up 55.4% of U.S. medical school matriculants.
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