Predictive models estimate $35B in lost Medicare physician services spending as result of MACRA: 4 key notes

Santa Monica, Calif.-based RAND Corp. researchers predict Medicare spending on physicians services could fall up to $35 billion with hospital service spending increase as a result of MACRA, Health Affairs reports.

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Here’s what you should know.

1. Health Affairs’ estimates are higher, predicting Medicare spending falling up to $106 billion on physician services and up to $250 billion on hospital services.

2. RAND believes physician response to MACRA and advanced payment model design will dictate the specifics of government spending.

3. RAND predicts if all eligible physicians participate in APMs with strong financial incentives, spending would fall the most.

4. Hospitals would also be drastically affected in the aforementioned scenario.

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