The U.S. is projected to face a shortage of 27,940 surgeons by 2038, and vascular surgery is expected to be hit hardest, according to a study from the American College of Surgeons.
The researchers called it the first unified assessment of the country’s surgical workforce. They used the Health Workforce Simulation Model from HHS to project supply and demand across 10 surgical specialties from 2023 to 2038, according to a Sept. 25 news release from the ACS.
Nationally, surgeon supply is projected to fall 4.2% over the period while demand grows 12.8%. That would leave the workforce meeting 84.3% of need, with larger gaps in rural areas.
Here is the projected share of need met in 2038, by specialty, according to the study:
Critical shortages
- Vascular surgery: 65.8%
- Ophthalmology: 71.8%
- Thoracic surgery: 73.1%
- Plastic surgery: 74.1%
Moderate shortages
- Urology: 84.4%
- Otolaryngology: 87.5%
- Orthopedics: 87.9%
- Neurosurgery: 88.7%
Lead author Fernando Ribeiro Duraes, a medical student at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine in Cleveland, said in the release that fixes need to be targeted by specialty and geography. He pointed to the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act, which, if passed, would be designed to add residency positions, a number that has not changed since 1997. He also encouraged rescinding recent caps on federal student loan borrowing and expanding public service loan forgiveness to encourage physicians to practice in rural areas.
At the Becker’s 32nd Annual Meeting: The Business and Operations of ASCs, taking place October 29-31 in Chicago, ASC leaders, surgeons and healthcare executives will explore strategies to drive growth, enhance operational performance, navigate reimbursement challenges and prepare for the future of ambulatory surgery. Apply for complimentary registration now.
